Glossary - Definitions of Selected Futures Terms  

Trend Extrapolation: Projects past trends into the future, for some given period of time. Assumes that the future will in some way be an extension of past trends.

Dynamic Systems Analysis and Computer Modelling: Shows how various variables in different areas interact with each other, within a whole systems context, over time.

Simulations and Games: An attempt to take certain variables from "reality" in some area and create a computer model or game situation in which one can see how those variables might interact with each other over time..

Cross Impact Analysis: Shows how choices concerning one variable interact with choices concerning another variable, providing a table of all possible combinations of choices for each variable, and showing which combinations are viable and which not.

Technological Forecasting: An attempt to forecast what technological breakthroughs and developments are most likely to occur in future and when they are likely to occur

Technological Impact Assessment: Looks at how new technologies are likely to impact on society or the environment.

Environmental Impact Assessment: Looks at how new developments in some area will impact on the environment. Often required today, before new building plans can be approved.

Social Impact Assessment: Looks at how new developments in some area will impact on society or on some community.

Delphi Polls of Experts--on Either Probable or Preferable Futures: Poll experts in some area on what events they think are most probable (or preferable) and when they are most likely to occur; also the reasons for their answers.

Futures Wheels: A group brainstorming technique to quickly determine what some of the first, second, and third order consequences might be, 'if' some event were to occur in the future--either for the first time, or if something were to either decrease or increase in value in future. Everything follows from this event put in the center of the futures wheel.

Scenarios: A possible sequence of events that 'could' happen in the future, based on certain initial conditions or assumptions and what could follow from that.

Science Fiction: A possible story of what could happen in some future social or world situation. Based on a scenario of some kind. 

Intuition & Intuitive Forecasting: A right brain 'a ha' experience, in which you suddenly 'know' something to be true, or you suddenly see patterns and relationships between things that you didn't see before. Intuition is another way of knowing, a "sixth sense," beyond our five senses

Experiments in Alternative Lifestyles: One of the best ways to find out if alternative values can work is to try them out in practice. Those new "fads" or alternative lifestyles that work, and respond to some social need, often see themselves becoming more mainstream with time.

Social Action to Change the Future: People willing to join together with others to educate people on some issue and to work for meaningful change often find that their efforts 'can' effect and help to change the future.

Short, Medium, and Long Range Planning: Futurists look at planning in short, medium, and long range terms. [See Earl Joseph's five different time periods for looking at change and the future.]

Relevance Trees: A way to map out the sequence of events, and in what order, that are necessary to get from where you are now to where you want to be as your end goal by some future date.

CERT/CPM Analysis: A method for doing complex planning of great numbers of people and subcontractors working on some large project, such as the space program.

Agent modeling involves the construction of computer models in which "agents" populate the screen and are given certain, usually simple, rules of behavior.

Complexity modeling involves use of the concepts of non-linear dynamics in the modeling of complex systems. The field stems from the physical sciences, and its concepts have been used in analysis (and forecasting the behavior) of social systems.

Environmental scanning is the systematic search of current developments, usually through detailed review of selected formal and informal publications, of current developments and trend shifts that suggest that future changes may be brewing.

Morphological analysis is a method for stimulating innovation. In that sense it is a technique for asking what is possible in the future in a given field. The technique was first illustrated in a search for new kinds of jet engines. It begins with subdividing the system of concern into its major subsystems: in the case of jet engines these might be thrust mechanism, fuel, oxidizer, etc. Then, in turn, each of these subsystems are described in terms of all possible alternatives: for example, the thrust mechanism could be turbojet, ramjet, pulsejet, propjet. The oxidizer could be atmospheric oxygen, liquid oxygen, another chemical source, etc. The fuel could be liquid or solid. Having exhausted the possibilities under each subsystem heading, the alternative approaches are assembled in all possible permutation. For some of the possible combinations, real life systems exist. For others, they do not. Some of these others will be patently impossible; but others at least raise the question "why not". And in attempting to answer this question new inventions are stimulated.

Science Road Maps describes a technique pioneered by the Motorola Corporation and pursued by Santa Fe Institute. In this approach, a "road map" of the potential future developments of a given field of science is laid out in much the same manner as a PERT chart, with developments interconnecting and demonstrating how progress in one area could trigger downstream developments in another. This approach is also useful in competitive analysis (if we don’t develop it, they might) and selection of R&D projects.

Counter-intuitive. Counter to normal expectations. Varies as person's field, but issues that are out of the range of "normal" assumptions and behavior may not gain as much evaluation as those activities that are "expected"

Discontinuity. A major shift in a trend, that is so drastic that it cannot be accounted for by normal variation. An example might be the population shifts due to the baby boom. A larger scale example would be change from the industrial revolution to the information revolution.

Driving Forces. There are many trends or events that shape the future, but some are more important and evident than others. Driving forces are these major future shapers. Examples might be the essence of demographic changes or technological innovations.

Extrapolation. Extending a curve into the future by assuming the variables will continue to behave as they have in the past.

Forecast. An estimate of what might happen in the future. It is not absolute and often has probabilities attached. It is a "best guess".

Futurist. There is no good definition. Basically, it is a person interested in futures-related work. A small number work full time on the topic, many more are part time futurists and full time doing something else. They range from popular writers to highly technical experts in selected areas. Their views are in agreement on some things and vary widely on others.

Gaussian distribution. The distribution of events in a bell shaped curve. This is similar to the sigmoid curve and is derived mathematically but applies to many situations. It indicates there is generally a majority in the middle with extremes at either end. Here the actual number of events is used, where in the sigmoid curve it is the rate of change. A common example is the distribution of grades in a class.

Group-intelligence. This is where each member of the group contributes to the whole. The result is a synergistic effect where the group is more than just a sum of the parts. Groups or teams that operate this way function well. See group-think for the opposite effect of a group.

Group-think. This is the effect when a group works together and is sufficiently similar either by group membership or by training that they "think as one". This frequently results in narrow perspectives, avoidance of debating key assumptions or trends, and detracts from what can be positive benefits of a group. See group- intelligence (opposite) and mindset (similar).

Holistic. Looking at the whole system rather than just concentrating on individual components. The overall sum can be greater than a simple totaling of the individual parts, because the "system" adds something in addition. Another term is "systems thinking".

Leading indicators. Certain indicators that reflect early warnings of change. They vary by field (e.g., economic, social, environmental) and are the important trends as identified by practitioners in the field. They are useful because they take the very large number of relevant variables and reduce them to the important few (which may also include combinations of the individual variables) which signal changes coming in the relevant subject areas

Mindset. A person's frame of reference that is fixed. A person can have a particular "mindset" that is so strong in a specific outlook that they do not see other perspectives, even though they might hear them and believe they have been given consideration. This prevents looking at new options in a realistic sense.

Model. A prototype or surrogate of a complex situation. It can be a physical model, such as an architectural model of urban design, or a mathematical model of interactions of many variables. It is used in simulations for relating various components together or can be a stand alone tool to evaluate different approaches using different assumptions. Recent use of personal computer tools allows many types of software to effectively answer questions such as "what if I increase the growth rate"; these too are models.

Paradigm or paradigm shift. A paradigm is a pattern/mode/description of a given situation. It can be thought of as the force behind the unwritten rules of society or a particular discipline. A paradigm shift is a movement from the accepted paradigm, to a new one. It applies to subject matter fields, where the prevailing thought can be described by a brief statement. When shifts occur it calls the prevailing wisdom into question, and when there is sufficient evidence to have wide debate on a topic, a paradigm shift is likely underway.

Prediction. A specific statement about a future condition. Usually made by non-experts (who would like to add qualifications or ranges). An example would be "who is going to win the football game this week".

Sigmoid curve (S curve). A curve that the rate of growth is rapid and then the growth rate declines. This produces a curve that appears as an S, due to a slow start, rapid growth, then leveling. Many biological systems follow this structure (e.g., population growth, carrying capacity), as well as product life cycles and societal fads. The same information is presented in the Gaussian distribution bell shaped curve; it different ways of looking at the same thing.

Simulation. Imitating or estimating how events might occur in a real situation. It can involve complex mathematical modeling, role playing without the aid of technology, or combinations. The value lies in the placing you under realistic conditions, that change as a result of behavior of others involved so you cannot anticipate the sequence of events or the final outcome.

Sustainability. The term originally applied to natural resource situations, where the long term was the focus. Today, it applies to many disciplines, including economic development, environment, food production, energy, and lifestyle. Basically, sustainability refers to doing something with the long term in mind, (several hundred years is sufficient). Today's decisions are made with a consideration of sustaining our activities into the long term future.

Trend. A pattern that is evident from past events. Sufficient data area required to see if there is a relationship of one (usually) or more variables (infrequent) over time. It is useful to better understand the subject under review as well as to estimate near- term future events.

Vision or Image. A picture or perspective of how you think something might be or should be sometime in the future. It is useful for developing a possible target(s) and explaining it to others. Image is more useful for futures studies, as it suggest s there are several "images" where vision to some suggests only one.

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